U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays
Percent, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Personal saving rate is calculated as the ratio of personal saving to disposable income. Data scientist will use this rate as a proxy for future planning compared to immediate needs.
The data shows seasonality. The data should be adjusted. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Untransformed variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Personal Saving Rate
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data does not show strong autocorrectation indicating no need for differencing
The ACF indicates 0 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.18
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.18 p-value = 0.02 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.89 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 1.71 indicates the data are substantially skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.26 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT, December 16, 2019.