New Private Housing Units, Total US - Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Census Bureau

Release:
Housing & Urban Development

Units:
Thousands of Units, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

New private housing units authorized by building permits provides a general indication of the amount of new housing stock that may have been added to the housing inventory. Since not all permits become actual housing starts and starts lag the permit stage of construction, these numbers do not represent total new construction, but should provide a general indicator.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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New Private Housing Units, Total US - Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.35

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.32 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.96 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of -0.51 indicates the data are moderately skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.70 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.49
Box-cox
1.35
Log_b(x-a)
1.63
sqrt(x+a)
1.51
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.63
Yeo-Johnson
1.37
OrderNorm
1.33

Citation:

U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits [PERMIT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT, December 15, 2019.

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