US Regular All Formulations Gas Price

Source:
U.S. Energy Information Administration

Release:
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Units:
Dollars per Gallon, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Weekly, ending Monday

Available Through:
12/12/2021

Why Use:

Gas prices indicate oil supply and demand. Shocks to the price can indicate overall economic health.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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US Regular All Formulations Gas Price

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 1.03 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.28 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.00 inidcates the data is multimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
2.97
Box-cox
2.55
Log_b(x-a)
2.48
sqrt(x+a)
2.67
exp(x)
5.71
arcsinh(x)
2.49
Yeo-Johnson
2.57
OrderNorm
1.19

Citation:

U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price [GASREGW], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW, December 15, 2019.

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