U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percent, Seasonally Adjusted
The unemployment rate measures the share of the labor force that is jobless in the US. This is indicative of GDP levels and long-term economic health.
The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Unemployment Rate US Civilians - Seas Adj
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.25
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.64 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.90 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.54 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.22 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, December 18, 2019.