Unemployment Rate US Civilians - Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release:
Employment Situation

Units:
Percent, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
11/30/2021

Why Use:

The unemployment rate measures the share of the labor force that is jobless in the US. This is indicative of GDP levels and long-term economic health.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

Connect to this
Data Set Now

Ready Signal automates the process of sourcing, normalizing, and applying data science treatments to this data and other impactful control data. Create an account today.

Unemployment Rate US Civilians - Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.25

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.64 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.90 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.54 indicates the data are moderately skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.22 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.80
Box-cox
1.23
Log_b(x-a)
1.43
sqrt(x+a)
1.51
exp(x)
6.10
arcsinh(x)
1.42
Yeo-Johnson
1.25
OrderNorm
1.09

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, December 18, 2019.

Take the next step

SIGN UP FREE