Unemployment Claims by State

Source:
U.S. Employment and Training Administration

Release:
Initial Unemployment Claims

Units:
Number, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Weekly, Ending Saturday

Available Through:
12/03/2021

Why Use:

Initial claims by state measures the number of unemployment claims filed per week in each US state. This is indicative of overall economic health, availability of jobs, and economic resessions/depressions.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Unemployment Claims by State

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.25

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.07 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.86 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 1.83 indicates the data are substantially skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.01 with a p-value of 0.87 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
2.68
Box-cox
1.20
Log_b(x-a)
1.19
sqrt(x+a)
1.79
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.19
Yeo-Johnson
1.20
OrderNorm
1.17

Data Notes:

The following states do not report for this feature: District of Columbia, Puerto Rico.

Citation:

Varies

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