Total Vehicle Sales - Not Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Retail Sales

Units:
Thousands of Units, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
11/30/2021

Why Use:

Total vehicle sales indicates the number of drivers, number of vehicles, vehicle supply and demand, and overall economic strength.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and seasonality. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Total Vehicle Sales - Not Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.49

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.24 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.98 with a p-value =0.08 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of -0.42 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.85 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.13
Box-cox
0.97
Log_b(x-a)
1.29
sqrt(x+a)
1.27
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.29
Yeo-Johnson
NA
OrderNorm
1.38

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Total Vehicle Sales [TOTALNSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALNSA, December 16, 2019.

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