Total Public Debt

Source:
U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service

Release:
Federal Debt

Units:
Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Quarterly, end of period

Available Through:
09/30/2021

Why Use:

The total public debt meausres the amount of money that the US government owes to outside entites. This is indicative of ??

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Arcsin transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Total Public Debt

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.02

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.13 p-value = 0.08 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.96 with a p-value =0.31 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.20 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.75 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.27
Box-cox
1.23
Log_b(x-a)
1.13
sqrt(x+a)
1.27
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.13
Yeo-Johnson
1.23
OrderNorm
1.27

Citation:

U.S. Department of the Treasury. Fiscal Service, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt [GFDEBTN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN, December 19, 2019.

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