U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service
Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly, end of period
The total public debt meausres the amount of money that the US government owes to outside entites. This is indicative of ??
The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Arcsin transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Total Public Debt
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.02
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.13 p-value = 0.08 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.96 with a p-value =0.31 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.20 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.75 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Fiscal Service, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt [GFDEBTN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN, December 19, 2019.