U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service
Percent of GDP, Seasonally Adjusted
Total public debt as a percentage of GDP measures the amount of money that the US governemnt owes to outside entities against the total economic output of the US. This is indicative of GDP and public debt levels, as well as the voerall economic situation in the US.
The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Yeo Johnson transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Total Public Debt as Percent of GDP
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.04
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.06 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.97 with a p-value =0.55 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.
A skewness score of -0.24 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.06 with a p-value of 0.37 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [GFDEGDQ188S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S, December 19, 2019.