Total Public Debt as Percent of GDP

Source:
U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service

Release:
Federal Debt

Units:
Percent of GDP, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Quarterly

Available Through:
09/30/2021

Why Use:

Total public debt as a percentage of GDP measures the amount of money that the US governemnt owes to outside entities against the total economic output of the US. This is indicative of GDP and public debt levels, as well as the voerall economic situation in the US.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Yeo Johnson transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Total Public Debt as Percent of GDP

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.04

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.06 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.97 with a p-value =0.55 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of -0.24 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.06 with a p-value of 0.37 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.45
Box-cox
1.45
Log_b(x-a)
1.49
sqrt(x+a)
NA
exp(x)
2.59
arcsinh(x)
1.49
Yeo-Johnson
1.40
OrderNorm
1.83

Citation:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [GFDEGDQ188S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S, December 19, 2019.

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