Total Nonfarm Employees - Not Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release:
Employment Situation

Units:
Thousands of Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
11/30/2021

Why Use:

Total nonfarm employees measures the number of persons 16 years of age or older working in nonfarm positions. This indicates population size and occupation opportunity.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Boxcox transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Total Nonfarm Employees - Not Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.05 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.96 with a p-value =0.01 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of -0.08 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.99 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.20
Box-cox
1.17
Log_b(x-a)
1.20
sqrt(x+a)
1.22
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.20
Yeo-Johnson
NA
OrderNorm
1.42

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYNSA, December 15, 2019.

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