Supply of Houses in the US - Not Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Census Bureau

Release:
Housing & Urban Development

Units:
Months' Supply, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
08/31/2021

Why Use:

The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold in the US, indicating how long the current for-sale inventory would last given the current sales rate if no additional new houses were built. This is indicative of supply and demand of houses in the US, as well as the overall economic situation.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Square Root transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Supply of Houses in the US - Not Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.09 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.96 with a p-value =0.01 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.74 indicates the data are moderately skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.35 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.55
Box-cox
1.51
Log_b(x-a)
1.43
sqrt(x+a)
1.40
exp(x)
3.61
arcsinh(x)
1.45
Yeo-Johnson
1.53
OrderNorm
1.58

Citation:

U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States [MSACSRNSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSRNSA, December 15, 2019.

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