READY SIGNAL CONTROL DATA

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Why Use This Data Source In Your Models?

Smoothed US recession probabilities measures the liklihood that the US is in or will enter an economic recession. This is useful for describing the overall economic situation in the US.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Instantly Download this Data Using Our Automated Feature Engineering Tool.

Automated Data Profiling

Ready Signal automatically profiles each data set and offers up suggested industry standard data science treatments to utilize with these data in your models.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows seasonality. The data should be adjusted. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

Source:
Hamilton, James

Release:
U.S. Recessions

Units:
Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
01/31/2024

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows seasonality. The data should be adjusted. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

Auto Correlation Analysis:

Data does not show strong auto correlation indicating no need for differencing

The ACF indicates 0 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of 0.00

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.05 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.12 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 7.83 indicates the data are substantially skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.04 inidcates the data is multimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
144.96
Box-cox
NA
Log_b(x-a)
3.97
sqrt(x+a)
28.58
exp(x)
147.44
arcsinh(x)
23.41
Yeo-Johnson
4.92
OrderNorm
1.66

Auto Correlation Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion


Citation:

Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N, December 19, 2019.

Designed For Data Scientists and Analysts

400+ Data Sources

Use our platform to aggregate, normalize, and profile open source and premium control data. Spend less time finding and wrangling data, and more time building efficient and feature-rich machine learning data pipelines.

Data Science Treatments

Instantly apply industry-standard data science treatments and transformations, including (but not limited to) Differencing, Lead/Lag, Box Cox. Easily manipulate data across different time and geographic grains.

Auto Discovery

Our Patent Pending iterative testing engine allows you to upload your target variable, and the platform will test for possible statistical relationships across all available data sources. Saving you time and removing analyst bias.

Data Ingestion

Easily integrate your Ready Signal data to the data science platform of your choice. Connect directly to Ready Signal through our API or using one of our pre-built data connectors or download directly in Excel or CSV format.

Scroll to Top