Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
Percent, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly, end of period
The delinquency rate measures the inability of consumers to pay their mortgage. This is indicative of economic health and can indicate recessions, unemployment, and other factors that cause loss of income.
The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Arcsin transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate - Seas Adj
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.35 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.90 with a p-value =0.01 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.51 indicates the data are moderately skewed.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.86 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks [DRSFRMACBS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS, November 8, 2019.