Retail Sales Excluding Food Service - Not Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Retail Sales

Units:
Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

Retail sales excluding food services measures disposable income willingness to spend money, and overall economic health.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and seasonality. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Retail Sales Excluding Food Service - Not Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.35

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.05 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.98 with a p-value =0.25 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.42 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.93 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.07
Box-cox
NA
Log_b(x-a)
0.99
sqrt(x+a)
1.06
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
0.99
Yeo-Johnson
0.96
OrderNorm
1.12

Citation:

U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Retail Sales: Retail (Excluding Food Services) [RSXFSN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFSN, December 15, 2019.

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