Real GDP Per Capita, Total US

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Gross Domestic Product

Units:
Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:
Quarterly

Available Through:
09/30/2021

Why Use:

Real GDP per capita describes the economic output of the entire US in each quarter divided by the number of persons in the US. This is indicative of recessions, wages, & the employment situation.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Arcsin transformation, provides the best normality, the Log variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Real GDP Per Capita, Total US

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.02

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.14 p-value = 0.06 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.94 with a p-value =0.07 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.18 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.06 with a p-value of 0.51 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.51
Box-cox
1.56
Log_b(x-a)
1.51
sqrt(x+a)
1.51
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.51
Yeo-Johnson
1.67
OrderNorm
1.57

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real gross domestic product per capita [A939RX0Q048SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA, December 19, 2019.

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