Personal Comsumption Expenditures: Durable Goods

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Personal Income and Outlays

Units:
Billions on Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted annual rate

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

Personal consumption expenditures on durable goods measures the amount of disposable income, indicating wages and economic health.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Untransformed variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Personal Comsumption Expenditures: Durable Goods

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.38

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.14 p-value = 0.06 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.08 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.26 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.10
Box-cox
1.24
Log_b(x-a)
1.14
sqrt(x+a)
1.18
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.14
Yeo-Johnson
1.24
OrderNorm
1.08

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods [PCEDG], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEDG, December 15, 2019.

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