U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays
Billions on Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted annual rate
Personal consumption expenditures on durable goods measures the amount of disposable income, indicating wages and economic health.
The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Untransformed variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
Personal Comsumption Expenditures: Durable Goods
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.38
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.14 p-value = 0.06 indicates that the data is stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.08 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.26 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods [PCEDG], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEDG, December 15, 2019.