PCE: Excluding Food & Energy - Chain Type Price Index - Not Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Personal Income and Outlays

Units:
Index 2012 = 100, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Annual

Available Through:
12/31/2020

Why Use:

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Square Root variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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PCE: Excluding Food & Energy - Chain Type Price Index - Not Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 2 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.53

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.72 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.90 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.26 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.12 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
2.40
Box-cox
2.19
Log_b(x-a)
2.41
sqrt(x+a)
1.99
exp(x)
19.98
arcsinh(x)
2.41
Yeo-Johnson
2.26
OrderNorm
1.52

Data Notes:

2020 data is not currently available.

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (chain-type price index) [DPCCRG3A086NBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCCRG3A086NBEA, December 15, 2019.

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