U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays
Index 2012 = 100, Not Seasonally Adjusted
The data shows autocorrection, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Square Root variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
PCE: Excluding Food & Energy - Chain Type Price Index - Not Seas Adj
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 2 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.53
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.72 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.90 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.26 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.12 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
2020 data is not currently available.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (chain-type price index) [DPCCRG3A086NBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCCRG3A086NBEA, December 15, 2019.