Number of Initial Unemployment Claims, Total US

Source:
U.S. Employment and Training Administration

Release:
Initial Unemployment Claims

Units:
Number, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Weekly, Ending Saturday

Available Through:
12/03/2021

Why Use:

Initial claims measures the number of unemployment claims filed per week in the US. This is indicative of overall economic health, availability of jobs, and economic resessions/depressions.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Number of Initial Unemployment Claims, Total US

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.24

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.86 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.50 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.29 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
2.58
Box-cox
1.77
Log_b(x-a)
1.97
sqrt(x+a)
2.26
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.97
Yeo-Johnson
1.77
OrderNorm
1.30

Citation:

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA, December 19, 2019.

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