New Private Housing Units Started - Not Seas Adj

Source:
U.S. Census Bureau

Release:
Housing & Urban Development

Units:
Thousands of Units, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
09/30/2021

Why Use:

New privately owned housing units started indicates the amount of new housing stock added to the housing inventory. This is indicative of total new construction, and provides a general indicator on construction activity and the real estate market in the US.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection, seasonality and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced and seasonally adjusted. While the Untransformed transformation, provides the best normality, the Order Norm variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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New Private Housing Units Started - Not Seas Adj

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.08

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.10 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.97 with a p-value =0.02 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of -0.23 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.43 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.24
Box-cox
1.32
Log_b(x-a)
1.41
sqrt(x+a)
1.30
exp(x)
12.24
arcsinh(x)
1.41
Yeo-Johnson
1.32
OrderNorm
1.26

Citation:

U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST, December 15, 2019.

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