Natural Unemployment Rate: Long-term, Total US

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release:
Employment Situation

Units:
Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Quarterly

Available Through:
12/31/2031

Why Use:

The long-term natural rate of unemployment measures the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. This indicates GDP levels and long-term economic health.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Yeo Johnson transformation, provides the best normality, the Order Norm variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Natural Unemployment Rate: Long-term, Total US

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 2 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.36 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.89 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.50 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 1.00 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.77
Box-cox
1.68
Log_b(x-a)
1.73
sqrt(x+a)
NA
exp(x)
1.73
arcsinh(x)
1.73
Yeo-Johnson
1.59
OrderNorm
1.61

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate: 20 years and over, Black or African American Men [LNS14000031], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000031, December 19, 2019.

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