Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods

Source:
U.S. Census Bureau

Release:
Manufacturers' New Orders

Units:
Millions of dollars, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods reflects new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of expensive factory goods that last 3 years or more. This indicates economic health and manufacturer behavior in the US.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.45

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.32 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.96 indicates the data are moderately skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.55 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.43
Box-cox
1.41
Log_b(x-a)
1.41
sqrt(x+a)
1.43
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.41
Yeo-Johnson
3.11
OrderNorm
1.26

Citation:

U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods [DGORDER], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER, December 15, 2019.

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