Industrial Production Index

Source:
Board of Governors of Fed Reserve System

Release:
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Units:
Index 2012=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

The industrial production index is an economic indicator that measures the real production output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities. This is indicative of the overall economic situation and GDP in the United States.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Industrial Production Index

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.33 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.94 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.37 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.19 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.67
Box-cox
1.63
Log_b(x-a)
1.63
sqrt(x+a)
1.66
exp(x)
7.67
arcsinh(x)
1.63
Yeo-Johnson
1.43
OrderNorm
1.21

Citation:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Industrial Production Index [INDPRO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO, December 15, 2019.

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