Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Gross Domestic Product

Units:
Index 2012=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Quarterly

Available Through:
09/30/2021

Why Use:

The GDP price deflator measures the changes in prices for all of the goods and services produced in an economy. This shows how much a change in GDP relies on changes in the price level, so can help correct for price fluctuations in GDP numbers. This can also indicate supply and demand of goods in the US.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Yeo Johnson transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.23 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.96 with a p-value =0.24 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.24 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.99 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.40
Box-cox
NA
Log_b(x-a)
1.40
sqrt(x+a)
1.40
exp(x)
3.08
arcsinh(x)
1.40
Yeo-Johnson
1.39
OrderNorm
1.68

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator [GDPDEF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF, December 19, 2019.

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