GDP, Total US - Seas Adj Annual Rate

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Gross Domestic Product

Units:
Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:
Quarterly

Available Through:
09/30/2021

Why Use:

Real GDP describes the economic output of the entire US in each quarter. This is indicative of recessions, wages, & the employment situation.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Square Root transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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GDP, Total US - Seas Adj Annual Rate

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.23 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.15 indicating the data follows a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.23 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.97 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.43
Box-cox
1.43
Log_b(x-a)
1.43
sqrt(x+a)
1.37
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.43
Yeo-Johnson
1.43
OrderNorm
1.56

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [GDP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP, December 19, 2019.

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