Forecasted Rainfall

Source:
NOAA

Release:
Forecasted Weather

Units:
mm

Frequency:
Daily

Available Through:
12/10/2021

Why Use:

Weather is utilized in order to provide a measure of behavioral changes based on variations. This can include both severe weather as well as overall shits in weather as a dynamic form of seasonality.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows seasonality. The data should be adjusted. While the Square Root transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data does not show strong autocorrectation indicating no need for differencing

The ACF indicates 0 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.42

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.04 p-value = 0.10 indicates that the data is stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.49 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 3.88 indicates the data are substantially skewed.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.00 inidcates the data is multimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
104.04
Box-cox
NA
Log_b(x-a)
91.74
sqrt(x+a)
85.33
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
86.20
Yeo-Johnson
89.83
OrderNorm
86.35

Data Notes:

Some weather stations, such as the State of Delaware, do not report as frequently as others.

Citation:

Menne, M.J., I. Durre, B. Korzeniewski, S. McNeal, K. Thomas, X. Yin, S. Anthony, R. Ray, R.S. Vose, B.E.Gleason, and T.G. Houston, 2012: Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3.27; NOAA National Climatic Data Center. http://doi.org/10.7289/V5D21VHZ [access date].

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