Federal Surplus or Deficit

Source:
U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service

Release:
Monthly Treasury Statement

Units:
Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

The federal surplus or deficit measures the overall difference between government revenues and spending. This is indicative of ??

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows seasonality. The data should be adjusted. While the Square Root transformation, provides the best normality, the Order Norm variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Federal Surplus or Deficit

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data does not show strong autocorrectation indicating no need for differencing

The ACF indicates 0 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.50

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.17 p-value = 0.03 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.97 with a p-value =0.01 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.42 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.26 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.33
Box-cox
NA
Log_b(x-a)
NA
sqrt(x+a)
1.08
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
6.96
Yeo-Johnson
1.35
OrderNorm
1.28

Citation:

U.S. Department of the Treasury. Fiscal Service, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [MTSDS133FMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS, December 19, 2019.

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