U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Fiscal Service
Monthly Treasury Statement
Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted
The federal surplus or deficit measures the overall difference between government revenues and spending. This is indicative of ??
The data shows seasonality. The data should be adjusted. While the Square Root transformation, provides the best normality, the Order Norm variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
Federal Surplus or Deficit
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data does not show strong autocorrectation indicating no need for differencing
The ACF indicates 0 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.50
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.17 p-value = 0.03 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.97 with a p-value =0.01 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.42 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.04 with a p-value of 0.26 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Fiscal Service, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [MTSDS133FMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS, December 19, 2019.