Disposable Income

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Disposable Income

Units:
Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

Disposable income measures the total income remaining after deduction of taxes & other mandatory charges. This is used to indicate American's financial health and predict consumer behavior and economic growth.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Yeo Johnson variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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Disposable Income

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.10

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.28 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.19 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.16 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.39
Box-cox
1.38
Log_b(x-a)
1.39
sqrt(x+a)
1.41
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.39
Yeo-Johnson
1.37
OrderNorm
1.18

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Disposable Personal Income [DSPIC96], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96, December 15, 2019.

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