Crude Oil Price: West TX Intermediate, Cushing, OK

Source:
U.S. Energy Information Administration

Release:
Spot Prices

Units:
Dollars per Barrel, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Daily

Available Through:
11/29/2021

Why Use:

Crude oil prices indicate oil supply and demand. Shocks to the price can indicate overall economic health.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Untransformed variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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Crude Oil Price: West TX Intermediate, Cushing, OK

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.48

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 3.85 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.93 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of -0.19 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.05 with a p-value of 0.00 inidcates the data is multimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
8.81
Box-cox
NA
Log_b(x-a)
46.49
sqrt(x+a)
10.35
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
24.69
Yeo-Johnson
8.83
OrderNorm
0.97

Citation:

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma [DCOILWTICO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO, November 12, 2019.

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