CPI (Urban): All Items Less Food & Energy

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Release:
Consumer Price Index

Units:
Index 1982-1984=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

The consumer price index is an index of the variation in prices paid by typical consumers for all items less food and energy. This describes the overall economic situation, and supply and demand of all goods, less food and energy, in the US.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Square Root transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.

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CPI (Urban): All Items Less Food & Energy

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 2 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.61 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.95 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.16 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 1.00 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.22
Box-cox
1.27
Log_b(x-a)
1.21
sqrt(x+a)
1.19
exp(x)
11.15
arcsinh(x)
1.21
Yeo-Johnson
1.29
OrderNorm
1.43

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, December 13, 2019.

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