U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays
Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Real personal consumption expenditures measures the capital spent on goods and services in the US each month. This is indicative of wage rates, disposable income, and financial status of the average citizen. This is also indicative of overall economic health.
The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.
Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.
All Personal Comsumption Expenditures
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Further differencing is reccommended
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.53 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.94 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.24 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.98 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE, December 16, 2019.