All Personal Comsumption Expenditures

Source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Release:
Personal Income and Outlays

Units:
Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Frequency:
Monthly

Available Through:
10/31/2021

Why Use:

Real personal consumption expenditures measures the capital spent on goods and services in the US each month. This is indicative of wage rates, disposable income, and financial status of the average citizen. This is also indicative of overall economic health.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

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All Personal Comsumption Expenditures

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.53 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.94 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.24 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.02 with a p-value of 0.98 inidcates the data is unimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
1.33
Box-cox
1.31
Log_b(x-a)
1.29
sqrt(x+a)
1.33
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
1.29
Yeo-Johnson
1.31
OrderNorm
1.08

Citation:

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE, December 16, 2019.

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