4-Week Moving Avg of Initial Unemployment Claims

Source:
U.S. Employment and Training Administration

Release:
Initial Unemployment Claims

Units:
Number, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:
Weekly, Ending Saturday

Available Through:
12/03/2021

Why Use:

4-week moving average of initial claims measures the average number of unemployment claims filed per week in the US for the past 4 weeks. This is indicative of overall economic health, availability of jobs, and economic resessions/depressions, and can provide a more stable value than the per week datasets as it smooths out short term fluctuations.

Suggested Treatment:

The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Boxcox variable will also perform well.

Grain Transformation:

Data is able to be distributed by time but not by geography. The roll up method used is Sum.

Connect to this
Data Set Now

Ready Signal automates the process of sourcing, normalizing, and applying data science treatments to this data and other impactful control data. Create an account today.

4-Week Moving Avg of Initial Unemployment Claims

Auto Correction Function

Auto Correlation Function After Differencing

Partial Auto Correlation Function

Seasonal Impact

Seasonal and Trend Decompostion

Autocorrectation Analysis:

Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing

The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.

Further differencing is reccommended

Trend Analysis:

The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.94 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.

Distribution Analysis:

The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.92 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.

A skewness score of 0.47 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.

Hartigan's dip test score of 0.03 with a p-value of 0.03 inidcates the data is multimodal

Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)

No transform
2.75
Box-cox
1.97
Log_b(x-a)
2.18
sqrt(x+a)
2.41
exp(x)
NA
arcsinh(x)
2.18
Yeo-Johnson
1.98
OrderNorm
1.17

Citation:

U.S. Employment and Training Administration, 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims [IC4WSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA, December 16, 2019.

Take the next step

SIGN UP FREE