Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Weekly, ending Thursday
30 year mortgage rates describes the daily average of 30 year mortgage rates in the US. This indicates the trend of interest rates overall as well as the long term fininacial outlook.
The data shows autocorrection and a non-normal distribution. The data should be differenced. While the Order Norm transformation, provides the best normality, the Arcsin variable will also perform well.
Data is unable to be distributed by time or geography. The roll up method used is Weighted Average.
30 Year Mortgage Rates
Auto Correction Function
Auto Correlation Function After Differencing
Partial Auto Correlation Function
Seasonal and Trend Decompostion
Data shows autocorrectation indicating a need for differencing
The ACF indicates 1 order differencing is appropriate.
Following first order differencing, no further differencing is required based on the differenced ACF at lag one of -0.03
The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test, KPSS Trend = 0.55 p-value = 0.01 indicates that the data is not stationary.
The Shapiro-Wilk test returned W = 0.98 with a p-value =0.00 indicating the data does not follow a normal distribution.
A skewness score of 0.31 indicates the data are fairly symmetrical.
Hartigan's dip test score of 0.01 with a p-value of 0.86 inidcates the data is unimodal
Statistics (Pearson P/ df, lower => more normal)
Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States [MORTGAGE30US], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US, December 15, 2019